Will the price of carton base paper and waste paper rise in the fourth quarter?

In 2018, the market price of boxboard corrugated paper first rose in the end of February and in March, and the price increase was 300-500 yuan/ton. From the end of March to the beginning of April, some paper mills shipped a slight correction, but the price of boxboard corrugated paper in May showed a sharp rise again. Prices continued to fall back from June. We focus on the market since July.

The hot spot in the boxboard corrugated market in July was downtime and price cuts. Many paper mills such as Xiaolong, Liwen, Shanying, Rongcheng, Sun, Liansheng, etc. announced the shutdown maintenance. According to the production capacity calculation, the above six paper mills will cause the production to decrease by a total of 250,000 tons. If you add white paper, it is about 350,000 tons. In addition, small and medium-sized paper mills in most regions also arrange for downtime maintenance.

At the same time, the shipping price of cardboard paper in various regions is down, with a downward trend of 100-200 yuan/ton. Of course, there are still stable conditions. For example, the price of Tianjin Xiaolong recycled boxboard paper has not been adjusted.

Paper mill downtime was mainly due to the sluggish downstream demand, weak domestic demand growth, partial replacement of the industry, and uncertainty in export trade orders, which led to the current downturn in demand for corrugated paperboard, and the enthusiasm of paper mills to start.

On the one hand, the downside of prices was due to sluggish demand, paper mills were slow to ship, and stocks were high; on the other hand, the decline in raw material costs fell in July, the price of national waste yellow paper fell sharply, and the cost side could not support the price of boxboard corrugated paper. stable.

Late prediction: We think there will be growth. On the one hand, after all, the boost points for the second half of the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Double Eleven, and Spring Festival still exist. However, it is expected to be in September and October, and the hope in August is not big. On the other hand, waste paper is supported by high costs.

However, given the uncertainty of the trade war and the massive release of new capacity, the high point of market price increases is unlikely to exceed the highs of last year.

I share a message with you. In the past two days, we have felt that some small paper mills are eager to move, and tentatively want to increase the shipping price of cardboard and corrugated paper. At present, the individual small factories in Hebei have been tentatively raised by 50 yuan/ton, and a small factory in Anhui is also tentatively offering 100-200 yuan/ton. There is no price increase action on the big paper mill here. The reason why the small paper mill raised the price at this time was mainly because the national waste price of the two days had a certain correction, so the cost considerations were a bit overwhelming, and the corrugated paper and cardboard paper market was like this.

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