The decline in the property market in 2011 made it impossible for the property market in 2012 to escape the downward trend. To further understand the trend of the home industry, accurate forecasting of the property market this year is an indispensable procedure. According to the forecast of relevant departments, the real estate economic growth rate will stabilize and decline in 2012, the monetary policy will be fine-tuned, and the real estate monetary policy will continue to be tight.
The downturn of the property market is affecting the downstream home industry
According to the forecast of “China's medium and long-term dynamic model of real estateâ€, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in 2012 is expected to be 10.3-10.6 billion square meters, down 3%-6% compared with 2011; the average price of commercial housing is 5050-5200 yuan | flat, down 1 compared with 2011 %-4%; new construction area of ​​housing is 20.5-21 billion square meters, up 6%-9% compared with 2011; real estate investment is expected to be 7-7.3 trillion, an increase of 15%-20% compared with 2011.
In addition to the four forecasts for the sales area, average price, construction area and investment of commercial housing in the country, the relevant departments also made a prediction for different levels of cities (as shown below): According to the model prediction, in 2012, first- and second-tier cities and a few third-line cities The demand for commercial housing market in the city has dropped significantly. The decline in first-tier cities is close to 20%, and the second-line is close to 15%. The average price of key cities in terms of price will drop by about 5%, of which first-tier cities will exceed 10%, second-tier cities will decline slightly, and third-tier cities will fall slightly. The city rose slightly.
In 2012, the chain reaction brought about by the regulation of the property market gradually appeared. In January, the transaction volume of new residential buildings in Beijing hit a new low in four months. In the context of the regulation of the property market, the home market has shrunk dramatically, and the pressure on home furnishing companies has doubled. It is understood that the sales of most small and medium-sized home furnishing enterprises have declined. Although some enterprises have increased their sales, their profits have plummeted.
Although the real estate market is heart-rending, there are also home furnishing companies that see this as an opportunity. Tian Min, general manager of Shilihe Lighting City, believes that “the more the crisis, the more opportunities there are for development.†Tian Ming said, “In response to the market, we first expand the scale, and secondly, segment the brand, the third. The measure is public welfare marketing, and the fourth aspect is to improve services."
2010-2014 home trend "U-shaped" into the mainstream
After a detailed understanding of the property market trend in 2012, more than 20 home furnishings have depicted the "2010-2014 Home Trend Chart". In the process, the reporter found that the U-shaped map became the mainstream, the other trending or wavy, or the upward curve, but without exception, the valley bottom stayed in the first half of 2012, and after that Welcome to rise.
After careful analysis of the chart, we also found that the lowest point in 2012 compared with the beginning of 2010, the largest decline in companies reached 30%, the smallest decline in enterprises also 5%, and 20% became a common phenomenon. For the trend after 2012, the forecasts of the companies in the company are more cautious, and most of them are rising at an annual rate of 5%-10%. The reason is that on the one hand, the real estate market is unstable, and the home market forecast is unknown; on the other hand, the home market is picking up. Peng Guihua, chairman of Yaguangya Decoration, also explained that there will be a post-demurrage period in 2012 when interpreting the charts she has drawn. This post-lag period may not be delayed in the second half of the year.
Where is the first gun in 2012?
A good start is half the battle. The first shot of the year is crucial for the year-round development. Products, channels, brands, and services have always been the four most important elements of enterprise development. Which ones will be used to blow the 2012 charge, and we have conducted an investigation.
The results showed that a total of 16 home furnishing companies participated in the survey, including 4 of the first products selected, 6 of which were selected, 3 of which were selected, and 2 of which were selected. In addition, the representative of Oriental Parkson chose one of the four items - internal integration.
In this survey, the channel has become the key adjustment direction of many enterprises in 2012 with absolute score advantage. In this regard, Zhou Hao, marketing director of Spur, said that the construction of the channel cannot be followed. "The current channel is nothing more than the cooperation of foreign dealers with us. Beijing is generally a direct-operated store. The traffic flow of traditional channels and the signing rate have been reduced. Therefore, our own team of designers has invested some small monopoly in the community. In addition, there are also some distributors in the field. We can integrate the available channels, bundle some powerful dealers, and improve their own combat capabilities, so that they can have a good control over business management."
Although nearly 40% of enterprises have chosen channels, the understanding of products by Zhang Gang, general manager of Yishapu, may give more consideration to home furnishing companies. He believes that "the home industry should promote a penny and a share of goods, but also build a rational consumption environment in products, quality, and services, so that entrepreneurs can pay more attention to the real things, consumers complain about many things. It will be less and less. Therefore, from the product extension to the big environment, to do business with the entrepreneur's mentality, to do this market, can truly meet the needs of consumers."
In addition to channels and products, attention to services has also been recognized by the guests. It is even harder to seize the customer's ability, retain the customer, and cultivate enough loyalty. Hao Liping, the vice chairman of Royal Hyundai, said, “I think it is very important to provide customers with quality and quality services. How to add visual value and furniture itself to its added value can provide customers with a service. I feel that it is becoming more and more important in this environment. I think our most important job is to explore his real needs and serve him well when he is exploring new channels."
The choice of Wang Jinke, the director of Oriental Parkson Planning, in this survey really made us shine. He did not choose any of these four items, but instead pointed to "internal integration." He believes that there will be an increase in the market in the second half of this year or next year, and rigid demand still exists. Once the policy is loose, there will be an outbreak. "Our internal integration is to meet this outbreak."
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